Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Shifting Gears
Thursday, March 31, 2011
My Guess
The Phillies can't overcome a lack of hitting and miss the playoffs. I remind you that this is a team that was shut out by the METS 4 times last year.
The Mets show that they have a lineup and enough pitching to stay in race. In mid season, Wilpons sell team to Hank Steinbrenner, who is pissed that younger brother Hal gets all the spotlight and does all the talking for the Yankees. Yammerin' Hank makes all the right midseason moves, acquires Soriano from the Yankees, and the Mets make a push for it
- Hide quoted text -
Reds show the promise of last year was not a false one. They lose first World Series game since the 70's.
Twins get to avoid the Yankees in the playoffs and finally go some place. Win World series by winning all four home games (I guess this means I am predicting an American League victory in the All Star Game).
The Sawx discover that importing a player from San Diego, a la Ed Whitson, is ALWAYS a bad strategy for an Al East team.
Here's the National League:
East
Braves
Mets
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins
Central
Reds
Brewers
Cards
Cubs
Bucs
Who else is in this division?
West
Giants
Padres
Dodgers
Snakes
Who else is in this division?
Wild Card: Mets
Giants over Mets in 5
Reds over Braves in 5
Reds over Giants in 6
American
East
DEVIL Rays
Yanks
Sawx
Orioles
Blue Jays
Central
Twinkies
Tigers
Sox
Royals
Indians
West
Rangers
A's
Angels
Mariners
Wild Card: Yanks
Rangers over Yanks in 4
Twins over Rays in 5
Twins over Rangers in 6
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Challenge Accepted
Either way, here are the correct answers (2010 final record and division finish in parentheses):
American League
East
1. Boston Red Sox: 97-65 (89-73, 3rd)
2. New York Yankees: 93-69 (95-76, 2nd)
3. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays: 84-78 (96-66, 1st)
4. Toronto Blue Jays: 79-83 (85-77, 4th)
5. Baltimore Orioles: 70-92 (66-96, 5th)
Central
1. Minnesota Twins: 93-69 (94-68, 1st)
2. Chicago White Sox: 90-72 (88-74, 2nd)
3. Detroit Tigers: 79-83 (81-81, 3rd)
4. Cleveland Indians: 64-98 (69-93, 4th)
5. Kansas City Royals: 58-104 (67-95, 5th)
West
1. Oakland Athletics: 87-75 (81-81, 2nd)
2. Los Angeles (nee Anaheim) Angels: 86-76 (80-82, 3rd)
3. Texas Rangers: 85-77 (90-72, 1st)
4. Seattle Mariners: 71-91 (61-101, 4th)
National League
East
1. Philadelphia Phillies: 101-61 (97-65, 1st)
2. Atlanta Braves: 89-74 (91-71, 2nd)
3. New York Mets: 80-82 (79-83, 4th)
4. Florida Marlins: 76-86 (80-82, 3rd)
5. Washington Nationals: 71-91 (69-93, 5th)
Central
1. Cincinnati Reds: 93-69 (91-71, 1st)
2. Milwaukee Brewers: 84-78 (77-85, 3rd)
3. St. Louis Cardinals: 81-81 (86-76, 2nd)
4. Houston Astros: 73-89 (76-86, 4th)
5. Chicago Cubs: 70-92 (75-87, 5th)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: 55-107 (57-105, 6th)
West
1. San Francisco Giants: 91-71 (92-70, 1st)
2. Colorado Rockies: 89-73 (83-79, 3rd)
3. San Diego Padres: 84-78 (90-72, 2nd)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: 76-86 (80-82, 4th)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: 62-100 (65-97, 5th)
Playoffs
Colorado Rockies over Atlanta Braves in one-game playoff
American League Division Series
Boston Red Sox over Oakland Athletics (3-0)
Minnesota Twins over New York Yankees (3-2)
National League Division Series
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants (3-1)
Colorado Rockies over Cincinnati Reds (3-1)
American League Championship Series
Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins (4-1)
National League Championship Series
Philadelphia Phillies over Colorado Rockies (4-0)
World Series
Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox (4-1)
Two things: 1) I don't want to hear any nonsense from Yankee fans that I didn't pick them to win it all. My wedding cake was an interlocking "NY", and 2) I like my steak medium-rare.
Winning, duh.
Pre Opening Day Predictions & A Challenge
Wait, you think you can do better? Challenge accepted. If anyone else not a writer for this blog wants to get in on this, you’re more than welcome to copy the following template into a really long message below (or drop me an e-mail before opening day tomorrow at MLAZanoni@gmail.com). If anyone out there beats me, I will take you to dinner. I will pick the place, but you get a free dinner on me at the end of the regular season (no fast food, real dinner). So come on! It is worth a shot!
AL East
Red Sox: 94-68
Yankees: 93-69
Rays: 88-74
Jays: 80-82
O’s: 74-88
AL Central
Twins: 85-77
Chi Sox: 83-79
Tigers: 83-79
Royals: 70-92
Indians: 67-95
AL West
A’s: 88-74
Rangers: 85-77
Angels: 82-80
M’s: 72-90
NL East
Phillies: 95-67
Braves: 90-72
Mets: 82-80
Marlins: 80-82
Nats: 69-93
NL Central
Brewers: 90-72
Reds: 86-76
Cards: 84-78
Cubs: 78-84
‘Stros: 71-91
Pirates: 62-100
NL West
Rockies: 88-74
Giants: 86-76
Padres: 82-80
Dodgers: 73-89
D-backs: 70-92
ALDS: Rex Sox over Twins, Yanks over A’s
NLDS: Phils over Rockies, Brewers over Braves
ALCS: Yanks over Sox
NLCS: Brewers over Phils
WS: Yanks over Brewers
Seriously – MLAZanoni@gmail.com with your picks. I will honor them and buy you dinner if you (while adhering to my made up points system above) beat me by the end of the season. You too writers – I would gladly eat dinner with you guys as long as you return the favor if I win. Oh and click the like button so your friends can do it too.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
4 Sport Buffet
NCAA hoops prove to be the most entertaining thing around for most sports fans right now. Somehow in one of my brackets I picked 12 of these sweet 16 teams, and have a pretty high potential to score a lot more points having my final 4 intact. I think my personal best before this was 9 or 10 with 3 teams in the FF left. If anyone wants to see my bracket, I will gladly send them an autographed copy. Okay fine, I know it isn’t world record winning, but for a guy who starts watching college ball in late February and ends at the end of the tourney, I bet a lot of you are jealous with your busted brackets.
Speaking of the New York Rangers (snuck that in there) – they are on a 5 game win streak after a gritty 1-0 win last night against the Florida Panthers. King Henrik pitched his NHL leading 10th shutout of the season last night and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The Rangers need these wins to assure they at least maintain a #7 ranking going into the playoffs, but ideally can move up to #6 in order to avoid the 1 and 2 seeds in the first round (Flyers and Caps as it stands now - a point away from each other). Rangers hockey isn’t pretty hockey, but the last 5 games they have really woken up and played as a team. I am excited to see if they can upset one of these higher seeds moving towards the postseason.
Baseball is right around the corner. Opening day is happier than Christmas for me and lacks the snow… okay USUALLY lacks the snow. The Yankees are limping in hurting a bit with Granderson most recently straining an oblique. Also, Cervelli broke a foot and won’t be there to start the year as backup. I can imagine Posada being the only backup on the roster to start the season unless Montero shows he can hit in these next few games. I was really looking forward to seeing what this kid Montero was going to look like at the dish only to be disappointed with a bad average and only 2 doubles and 0 HR all spring. I am not too scared as it will work itself out for the club this year. Watch out for Jeter’s game to rebound, Cano to get better as he hits his true prime, and the rotation to exceed expectations (which aren’t that high) – among other things.
Lastly, the NFL is making noise. No, we have no confirmed 2011-12 season yet, BUT we have “fixed” a few things. We will now see more touchbacks due to moving up the kickoff spot (and I’m pretty sure the guys with big legs will be making the occasional "field goal"). Nice work guys – almost got that new CBA worked out I see. The last thing I want to hear as I’m dozing off on my couch is Joshua Cribbs and Devin Hester complaining via cell phone about how they won’t get as many chances to return a kickoff anymore. They had to be C- students at best. I do agree with them, I love kickoff returns - but mostly for those brusing hits they usually take when caught with nowhere to go. Why not just let teams with big leg kickers place the ball on the 20 for the other team and save the time. Oh right, commercial time before and after the kick. Lastly, it has also been said that there is no desire for replacement players if the lockout continues into the regular season. Aw man! I was looking forward to seeing this guy under center again some day.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
A New Yankees Team to be Excited For
In the early 90’s, the Yankees raised a few solid players and used their funds and a few other prospects as trade bait to build completely around them. With the exception of Tino Martinez and Paul O’Neil, I think you can argue that these “home grown players” have always been the most popular with the fans. Something is just so awesome about saying that you were at the stadium during someone’s rookie season. Then you watched him win a world series - or two - or five. And now, that you are currently watching what may amount to be the last meaningful season, pitch, or at bat of that player. Every time you have seen a player make any play over their entire career – it was for your favorite ball club (let’s forget Andy went to Houston for awhile – like a divorced mother my friends just told me Andy was “away on business” for those three years). While we’re not there yet with Jeter, Posada, or Rivera just yet (knock on wood), we just watched Andy throw his last pitch in pinstripes. The good money is on him getting the biggest ovation at old timer’s day this season.
Before I continue, let me first say that I will miss these guys more than you will. I tend to talk about past games I’ve been to or seen. A lot. Nothing means more to me as a fan than showing someone I not only care now, but I have cared for as long as I can remember. I am so impressed with old timers who say they’ve watched the greats and were at games during the ’61 season where Maris hit home runs. With that said, I am excited to see these current guys go out with their rings, their hall of fame careers, and legacies that I will tell to my children like my father has told me tales of Mantle, Munson, and Jackson. Now, I will say that I am possibly more excited watching some of these kids play than I am watching the same old guys win another series. Yes, I would rather both. It would be great if the old guys and the new guys can win another series. And I know that the odds are that prospects, even when solid players in the minors, aren’t going to be your next franchise player and future hall of famer. Cano, Gardner, Hughes, Nova, Montero and even still Chamberlain look as if they can be the beginning of a new young core.
Cano you may say is not in the same category as the others. True. But neither was Bernie Williams. Bernie was the senior officer of that group. A link to the Mattingly era where a trip to the playoffs was unheard of. He was the one to show success before the other kids showed up to the party. He showed them that it could be done. You can achieve respect from fans and other players as a young player if you just keep working and getting better. Hughes is getting better as he ages and his consistency and longevity over the course of a full season will hopefully improve. We were hoping for Joba to be the next closer, but it seems the Yankees and/or his eating habits have retarded his progress. Still, he has the potential to be completely lights out for the long haul. If he can find that slider every time out and still not fall too much in love with it, he is almost unhittable. Gardner is the only one left with moderate big league success. While he is a completely different breed than anyone else we’ve seen come up in recent times. He definitely has tools the Yankees love. Only batting .280 or so this spring, his OBP is at .500. Who goes to spring training to practice taking walks? I love it. Much less is known about how Nova and even Montero (who may or may not see much action this season) our stud catching prospect will turn out. Nova can turn out to be a solid starter, and Montero could be better than Posada. They both can also fizzle as soon as they get their chances only to be known as the latest to not be able to hack it. (Side note – Nunez looks like he’ll be a fun replacement for Jeter if they don’t trade him and let him blossom. Ramiro Pena has to feel the heat behind him as the utility guy)
All I know is that I am excited to see a lot of these kids get a chance to really shine. I love World Series wins just like the next guy. The Yankees may not win a series this year, but we will definitely see some guys get their shot to show their hunger to make the future brighter. OR, knowing the history of this team, we’ll see Montero, Nova, and Hughes packaged up for another ace in the rotation. However, it seems as if (GM) Brian Cashman and the Yankees know that they can’t buy an entire team – they have to raise part of it too – or else I’m sure most of these kids would be gone. I really just think the organization has to get more realistic and stop saying every year is a goal to win the series. We had that luxary for awhile. Now it is their job to build a young enough team from our guys and some spare parts to try and repeat the success of the last decade and a half. I am not saying lose games for it, they can afford not to. Just don't go selling the future just yet.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Weighing in on C.C. - Let the Fat Jokes Begin!
The Facts:
Carston Charles is reportedly coming into this season at the range of 270-280lbs. This is about 30 pounds LEANER than last season. He will be 31 years old this summer, not a young age for any pitcher not named Nolan Ryan (doesn’t it seem like Nolan can still pitch for Texas?). Statistically speaking, an average pitcher is reaching or already at his prime now or in the next 2 years (yes, I am aware C.C. may have eaten the average pitcher for a pregame snack a year ago, but it’s all we have to go on here. There are not many 300+ pound pitchers with success in history). His prolonged out of shape body may have deducted from his ability to pitch into his late 30’s. We simply won’t know until the time comes, but the risk is higher than someone of a more normal, less rotund, shape I’m sure.
The Yankees have no rotation to speak of without him. Sabathia is THE ace. There is no argument about that. The Yankees are dying for stability in their rotation so they don’t waste one of the best offenses money can buy for the next few seasons. Come next year, I am seeing another free agent pitching class similar to this one, minus Cliff Lee. So, pretty awful. Sabathia walking away would leave Phil Hughes or AJ Burnett to anchor a rotation. I don't see that being an ideal option.
Remember A-Rod? A-Rod opted out of his monster deal when he was eligible, for ALL of these reasons. Remember how stupid Hank Steinbrenner looked? “If he opts out we won’t negotiate with him.” Then when I showed up on the depth chart to play third base and hit in the 4 hole, they panicked and threw themselves at his mercy. 30HR and 125RBI last year isn’t bad, I don’t care who says he is declining. But he is assured to be grossly overpaid into the old times in his career. He pulled this very move to perfection, despite having an agent to announce the opt out during the World Series. Real class.
The Defense:
If you disagree with these three facts, your argument is one of two things. C.C. is currently making about $23 million a season (average value, not sure of how it is structured exactly). The Yankees attempted to court Cliff Lee for about $23.3 million a season. How much can Sabathia really stand to make if he opts out just to re-sign? The other one is - where is the honor in opting out, especially when you and your family are seemingly happy in New York? Is he really as greedy as A-Rod? He can’t be, can he? He’s a big cuddly bear isn’t he? He is loved by teammates, fans, and the media. No way he'd risk his rep, right?
Prediction (assuming a healthy/productive season):
Okay, when you weigh the facts together (no fat guy pun. ok, a little fat guy pun), and then see the reasons against, you need to know that it makes 100% sense for him to opt out and try and resign a contract, even if he wants to stay put in NY. For one, he gets a new 6-7 years to play with. This puts him at 37-38 when it will expire rather than 35. Statistically, it is much smarter to negotiate for those years while you're young in your prime at 31, not when the contract is up and you can't lock up long term deals anymore at 35. Bodies fall apart. MPH come off the fastball. Sliders flatten out. Fatigue of the arm sets in. Obesity is still a disease. All of these say the longer he pitches, the better chance he catches the injury/age bug.
Secondly, he will have the market and the Yankees by the balls. He can demand the Yankees give him what they offered Lee, if not more, to continue to anchor the rotation. Either that, or risk losing him to someone who can/will. The Yanks already proved they’re soft and don’t care about this move when they dealt with A-Rod. Why would C.C. be the final straw when their pitching is thinner than their lineup was at the time of A-Rod’s thing? Here’s an idea – don’t put options in their contracts if you don’t want them to use them! (I know A-Rod’s option wasn’t the NYY doing at first, but CC was).
Is there evidence that C.C. knows all of this and is gearing up for the same thing? Glad you asked. He seems to be in the best shape he’s been in at camp as a Yankee. The man likes to eat. To (not making this up) stop eating Captain Crunch (C.C…. hmmm interesting)and get in better shape, you have two motives: either trying to prolong your career (which is also true in this case I’m sure, he loves to pitch), and/or to stay healthy and have a good season to sign a new contract. Players don’t have career years in the last year of their contract on a regular basis by a complete accident. C.C. just seems to be gearing up for his best season as a Yankee yet. Let’s embrace that instead of look any more at next season already.
I implore everyone – fans, journalists, and the wretched commentators alike – to just stay out of it because baseball has been for awhile, a business first. C.C. will ride out the year and not talk about it much at all until the season is over I’m sure. He has class. I really hope the man feels like he owes the team and especially the fans something and has a moral obligation to complete his service. However, morals and big business usually go together like peas and dog shit. I mean if he has career ending type 2 diabetic complications where his left arm has to be amputated, or relapses on the captain and gets too large to fit in hotel rooms on the road, the Yankees would just as soon kick him to the curb, paying him as little as possible to do so. It is hard to fault him if he does opt out, but people will because we sure as hell need him here and it will feel like he is turning his backs on the people that ultimately pay his salary. His fans.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
A Few Things I Am Following/Commenting On
The New York Rangers are either a push away from getting over this rut, or a few more games away from losing all confidence and falling even more in the Eastern Conference. Their offense has been anemic and Henrik has been less than stellar when he’s been in the game. Shooting over 45 times last night against a solid Red Wings team should net more than 2 goals. They had so many chances. I think we lack the finishing touch that will either come with age for some of these players, or never at all for others. I just pray we don’t truly have a team full of low second to high third liners that are solid enough to plug holes and grind out a win, but not enough finesse to keep on scoring. Some of these guys need to try to fill that role. And where is Gaborik?! Speaking of goals, he's been quiet. He scored 10 in 3 games this year, and 6 in the rest of the 39 he's played in. We need him to make the playoffs and do anything. (no more hockey after this I promise)
Fact: Andy Pettitte retired and will be missed by fans and the current team alike. Fact: The Yankees have problems with their rotation. Maybe fact: Completion of a season with this rotation can still result in a winning record with their lineup and still one and a half to two and a half starters. Probable fact: They will not finish the season with Nova and Mitre both holding down the back end of the rotation unless all of the other pitchers in the world die. Relax people, they’re still a contending team.
The Super Bowl was a good game. It ended almost like I predicted and exactly how I wanted. I thought GB would get by easier, but Rodgers won MVP, played amazing, and needs receivers who don’t drop perfect passes. It is super early, but does anyone think this team can repeat? I mean, a lot of guys were hurt on this team and arguably they’re better when all healthy. I wouldn’t put money against it.
My previous comment assumes there will be a 2011-12 season and playoffs. In some capacity, there will be. There is now too much money to be made/lost in professional sports through the owners if they hold out. Hockey was able to lockout a season because they don’t have the same revenue streams and actually had many franchises operating in or near the red anyway. Football will be back after a nasty battle between players and owners. When it boils down to it, neither side will get exactly what they want but they’ll still have enough money at the end of the day to do stupid things that will get them arrested and suspended.
Quickies: I’m shocked Michael Young is requesting a trade from Texas after the Beltre signing. He seemed to have so much willingness to always be moved around. DH/Utility fielder was where he put a stop on it I guess. Christina Aguilera is a commie spy, kill her. Wake Forest baseball coach Tom Walter donated one of his kidneys to Kevin Jordan, one of his outfielders. The Cleveland Cavs miss Lebron after their 25th straight loss. Cleveland is home to the Browns, Indians, and Cavs. Ouch. Go Cleveland State Vikings? Finally, Carlos Delgado reports that he is looking for a job come April. Three surgeries in 18 months may be a lot of punishment on a 38 year old big guy, but he needs 27 HR to hit 500, so don’t be surprised if a team needing a DH or part time first baseman takes a shot if he shows up and looks not too much like a fat old man in spring.
(P.S. Do you like the new layout?)
Thursday, February 3, 2011
The Lull
The Super Bowl is built up to be this extraordinary game. You would think each team hired a few super heroes to come play for them. The stories about who needs a game because of a tough past, a down and out story, a comeback season, beating cancer/drugs/alcoholism, death of a loved one, etc… are all on the table. Who doesn’t remember how the Saints gave New Orleans something to believe in last season? Credit the sportswriters for beating a horse dead and beating it some more. A week after last year’s game, did New Orleans really still believe a football team can fix their city? Of course not. I’m sure everyone woke up a few days later, probably on a dreaded Wednesday at work, and said “Aw man! Saints aren’t on this Sunday. And half my house is still floated away.”
What options do we have this coming Monday? I don’t particularly care for the NBA much anymore, although I will follow what ESPN tells me are the marquee matchups. If I watch a quarter of these games, it is a lot. The game isn’t good until the last few minutes or it isn’t good at all. College basketball is a bit more intriguing, but honestly not until March Madness for me. The NHL I love, but is the cancer of the major 4 sports to a lot of people who like the others. Soccer will never be what Baseball and Football are here in the states. Not until we’re taken over by, or become by ways of stupidity, a third world country. Even then, people will just go back to using milk cartons for gloves before kicking a ball around mindlessly. I am pretty sure you can catch a sweet bowling match at 2PM on a Saturday or Sunday during this stretch. Get excited!
To me, all professional sports I follow are an escape from reality. It is why I post these nonsensical paragraphs from my office. It is why I spend way too much of my discretionary income on going to see the teams live. It is why it doesn’t matter the Yankees won it all two years ago. Of course it is fun to re-live these moments in memory and conversation – but it never truly takes us back or away from anything anymore. Us as sports fans – hell – as human beings, have a nature to say “Okay, now what is next?” Well ladies and gentlemen, this coming Monday the lull will start. You can choose to fight it and watch these other options, or stick it out in the trenches. Either way, just make sure to check back here for some entertaining (as always) posts.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Early Yankees Preview & Mailing List
Okay, so like I said, baseball. A complete aside, I got in the mood reading a book by Michael Lewis called Moneyball. I have said I was going to read it for years, and it was recently mentioned to me again by my cousin at his wedding in Mexico, and I just got a cool new smart phone with a kindle app (yes I hate book apps but it’s easier than carrying a book on the crowded subway sometimes) – so I made it my first read. I am not here to talk about the book, other than an average fan or better will enjoy it - so go read it (or wait for the movie with Brad Pitt – not joking). Actually waiting 7 years after its release to read it has almost put more of it into a cooler perspective. Anyways, I just keep thinking on what the hell the Yankees are doing this offseason? Russell Martin, an ex all star to fall from the top 5 catcher discussion the past two seasons or so, and 34 y/o lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano signing away from the Mets seem to be all I have to talk about.
Ok so really quick, you will see an opening day lineup of (and minus the bench which will be taken care of much later - we're solid):
1) Jeter, SS, 2) Swisher, RF, 3) Teixeira, 1B, 4) Rodriguez, 3B, 5) Cano, 2B, 6) Posada, DH, 7) Granderson, CF, 8) Martin, C, 9) Gardner, LF
Bench: Your pick of Pena, Nunez, Curtis, Golson, Russo, and any other kid called up last year I missed or someone who makes it out of camp.
AND you will have a rotation of something like:
1) Sabathia, 2) Hughes, 3) Burnett, 4) Nova, 5) Grau Geist – er, I mean Mitre.
With a bullpen like:
Robertson, Logan, Chamberlain, Feliciano, Rivera & another reliever to be named later – perhaps named Prior or Brackman.
Okay so two things here: Why are we talking about trading prospects for relievers in NY papers? And secondly, why are we all of a sudden “in danger of making the playoffs” among baseball circles? I would like to point out the Yankees bullpen is interchangeable with the exception of Rivera. This is a strength. No one blows your mind, but there is no real gaping hole in it. Adding someone for the price of a closer like Soriano would simply be retarded before the season starts. For once, I am satisfied with the pen going into the season.
Now for the next sentence which will lead into answering number two: WE NEED A STARTING PITCHER – this isn’t a secret. But, we don’t need it just yet. I applaud Cashman for taking his sweet time in figuring this out. Lets compare to the 2008 Yankees that missed the playoffs. Those Yankees had a staff ace that went 20-9 in Mike Mussina, and a second best in Andy Pettite that went 14-14. They started 34 and 33 games respectively. Darrell Rasner, finished 5-10, started the third most on the team with 20 games. Ian Kennedy started 9 and went 0 and 4. Joba was a mess trying to make the transition and would be great one start and awful another. Wang was 8 and 2 in 15 starts and then hurt himself running home. And Finally, our savior Sidney Ponson was 4 and 4 in 15 starts. There were a few other guys who started and made no positive impact, but do you see the quality we were dealing with? And we still won 89 games playing a great number of games against the stacked AL East.
The East isn’t what it was in 2008 anymore. The Rays are a shadow of their team from ‘08, the Sox you can make an argument are back on track, but the O’s and J’s lack any kind of talent to compete still. This Yankee team making the postseason will be very possible with 1 ace, a solid 2/3 guy in the 2 spot, and a wildcard in Burnett. It isn’t like Nova and Mitre are Rasner either. If Burnett turns out to be a 5+ ERA guy again or someone gets hurt, we can be in trouble. However, until the season plays out, don’t give up the future of an aging team to plug holes that will be much cheaper to plug in a few months.
Now go sign up for my mailing list, or at least tell me how much you disagree with this entire premise of not needed a starter yet… I’d love to hear your regurgitated responses.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The Rules - "The Official Scorer"
Baseball is an odd sport overall. I feel as if the “official scorer” in each game plays a more prominent role than the ones that take stats down for other sports. It probably has a lot to do with the fact it is a very opinionated position. For example, if a player dunks a basketball, and the ref signals two points, the scorer gives that player two points. Nowadays, the basketball scorer (or perhaps it is just ESPN analysts) will say where the 2 point shot came from to later call up on a grid of hit shots, but that is pretty much it. No grey area around it. Everyone saw it was a 2 point play from where it happened, under the rim. In baseball, if a batter hits the ball and the shortstop bobbles it and the batter makes it to first just ahead of the throw, you’d think it could be just as easy. No such luck. A called error gives the batter credit for the at bat, an increase in his on base percentage, but no hit. If the play by the SS was a bit trying, it is up to the official scorer to say “The degree of difficulty on this play was not one you can make routinely, I will score it a hit for the player.” The runner’s speed, how hard the ball was hit, the conditions of the field, and the distance the fielder had to go (was there a dive/slide?) in the amount of time is all considered. Ten official scorers may score the same play 50/50 hit or error. Baseball has tons of grey area. I found the section about the official scorer (all 33 pages of it, Rule 10.00 – 10.23) in the official MLB rulebook to be fascinating about calls like this, and just some other calls and rules tied in with this responsibility.
The Shutout
Rule 10.18 dictates what a shutout is to be awarded by the official scorer. A shutout is when a pitcher that pitches all the innings of a game and simply doesn’t give up a run. ALSO, a shutout can be recorded if a pitcher enters the game in the first inning with no one out, doesn’t allow a run in that inning or for the rest of the game and finishes it. This makes it possible for a pitcher to get credit for a shutout, but not a complete game. Did you know that was possible? You’re welcome.
Not too WILD but it still PASSES people by… (horrible pun)
Rule 10.13 simply states: A wild pitch is the pitcher’s fault (or as deemed by the official scorer). A passed ball is the catcher’s fault. They’re effectively the same thing – the ball getting by the catcher. It is a matter of who to blame. I was once told in grammar school by someone who thought they knew everything that a passed ball is when it goes all the way to the backstop, and a wild pitch is when it simply gets away from the catcher and doesn’t go as far. I knew it sounded suspect then, and I’m glad I no longer associate myself with this person.
In every game there is a Winner and a Loser
Rule 10.17 is about a page long on who gets named the winning pitcher and who gets named the losing pitcher. I will not give you the entire thing, but just snippets to prevent myself from becoming too long winded. If a game ever becomes tied after starting pitchers have been removed, the last pitchers on record to get the win and loss are wiped out – this I knew. What I find fascinating is that there is a judgment call that can come from the scorer on this matter as well. Even who gets a win and loss isn’t always set in stone! It says that the official scorer should “not credit as the winning pitcher a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when at least one succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain its lead.” And you guys think I’m long winded!? Basically, the scorer can say “No man, you stunk, this guy was better, give him the win.”
Who gets charged the run?
ERA (earned run average) is an important stat when evaluating a pitcher. It tells you how many runs the pitcher gives up per 9 innings pitched. This is why allocating runs that score to the proper pitcher that allowed it is important. Rule 10.16 covers this in great detail. I just thought it was interesting to learn that a pitcher that is removed for relief is commonly assigned from the broadcaster that they are responsible for “so and so on first and second” or “whathisname” on first. This is not entirely the case. A pitcher is responsible for the NUMBER of runners he left on base, not specific runners, unless the runner makes out by a non-batted ball. The rulebook uses names like Peter, Abel, and Baker. I’m going to make this a bit more fun. Schmucko walks Ding-Dong. Schmucko is removed by reliever Assgoblin. The next hitter Dingbat (close cousin of Ding-Dong) hits into a fielder’s choice that got Ding-Dong out at second. Dingbat scores on a triple by the next hitter off of Assgoblin. Dingbat’s run is charged to Schmucko, not Assgoblin. However if Ding-Dong (the one to walk off Schmucko – stay with me people) gets caught stealing after Assgoblin came in to pitch, and Dingbat still scores in the inning – it will be Assgoblin’s charged run. So the next time Joe Buck (a combination of Schmucko, Assgoblin, Ding-Dong, and Dingbat – or just plain incest filled family trees) announces that “the pitcher is responsible for that guy on second,” feel free to write Fox a letter to have him read a rulebook. Or e-mail him the link to this article. Hey Joe – RETIRE (or choke on something).
The official scorer has no impact on the outcome of the game itself, this is true. He can’t tell a team that the other just batted out of order – that is their own job to keep track of. Also, a judgment call on whether a play is an error or not didn’t change the fact a run may have just scored. It can impact a whole bunch of other things though. It is actually fascinating how much this matters to diehard fans. Baseball seems to be wacky in its obsession with its own records and stats. There seems to be a stat for EVERYTHING nowadays. Players are also paid lots of extra bucks in incentives negotiated in their contracts for hitting certain milestones. For example, it is the last day of the regular season. A player who is on a significant hit streak, let’s call it 55 to make it interesting, one away from tying Joe DiMaggio’s all time record of consecutive games with a hit – a record said to be unbreakable. This player also has 99 RBI in the season and 199 hits. In his contract, he gets an incentive bonus of $100 grand for 200 hits on the season, and $100 grand for 100 RBI. Being hitless today, the batter hits a ball on the infield that scores a run and beats the throw to first. The run wins the game in walk off fashion. It is a questionable play all around – the scorer can clearly go either way with it. If he calls the play a hit – this man just tied a seemingly impossible record, and made an extra 300K in performance bonuses on top of it. If he reaches on an error, it costs the player a tie with one of the greatest players ever in the record books and an opportunity to beat it next season on opening day, and the $300K in bonuses. I’m not asking you to feel bad for the guy who just lost the money as he’s probably making more than you and I make collectively anyway. I just wanted to show you how the scorer has the ability to make someone look like a hero in the box score the next day, or just another person to fall short of a milestone. I’m sure I’ll re-visit the official scorer in the future as I have an unhealthy obsession with statistics and how they come up with this stuff. Stay tuned for next season!
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
To Sweep, or not to Sweep, that is the question…
So let me just debate this with myself using common sense. I am not looking up past stats of how long teams rested and if they won afterwards in the next series. To me, it is like debating which player’s pregame ritual works best. Listen, Pedro Cerano’s praying to Jobu would be the last thing on my list of things to get me psyched for a big game or get me out of a slump, but if it works for the guy I’d tell him by all means to have at it. It is purely subjective to the team involved in the extended/lack of rest.
So let’s begin with said common sense. The New York Yankees have an average age of about 84 years old. Ok, they’re not that old as a whole, but they definitely have the aging player factor to worry about. Mariano Rivera (40) saved two games in Minnesota on back to back days. No matter how long or short this guy takes off, the anchor the Yanks have in the Sandman is still the best relief pitcher in history and perhaps the best pitcher ever in the postseason. You know that he will bring it no matter how much time he gets off. Advantage: neutral
Andy Pettitte (38) pitched a gem his 4th start after coming back from his injuries less than a month ago. Seeing as the problem was in his groin and legs, and he suffered plenty of setbacks in trying to get back in the rotation, you can argue this either way. Does Andy need extra time to heal now, or has he had enough time off and should we be worried the layoff will allow him to get out of his game mode. Andy, being 38 and on the cusp of retirement a few seasons now, would probably tell you he can pitch every day in the postseason. You don’t become the pitcher with the most wins in October, especially in series clinching games, and not want the ball. I do believe however Andy won’t forget how to pitch with a few extra days off and time to work on his stuff. Expect a sharp Andy in the ALCS. Advantage: Yankees.
Hot bats like Granderson (5 for 11), Swisher (4 for 12, 2 doubles), and Cano (4 for 12, 1 triple) can always see a bit of a flame out having to sit for awhile. Opposing pitchers in general probably gain an advantage the longer hitters do not see live pitching. The notoriously patient Yankee lineup wasn’t really banged up going into the postseason, and the layoff may make them antsy when they come out of the gate on the road Friday. This would be especially tough if they had to face a strike throwing machine like Cliff Lee in the first game, but even if Texas makes it Lee is pitching tonight, so there shouldn’t be that much of a lingering effect given their experience. I do see it being more of a negative for guys who didn’t swing well against Minnesota because they only have the fact they didn’t produce to really help that much to reflect on. All in all, this will hurt the lineup a bit. Do not expect to see a flat offense to start, especially against lefties as they struggled all season against the weird wrong arm throwers. Advantage: Opposing team
Lastly, the fact that each the Rays and Rangers are using their aces tonight makes the Yankees’ mouths water. Not only does the team they face have to beat them, but they have to go up against C.C. Sabathia with their number 2 starter. This may prove to be the only advantage the Yankees get out of the difference in rest that is apparent. The rest is all speculation. The fact is that a Cy Young hopeful in C.C. is going against someone’s second rate starter that isn’t named Lee or Price. Actually, they’re both lefties the Yankees get to skip in game 1. Advantage on paper you must admit goes directly to defending champs.
I really don’t care who wins this series tonight as a diehard Yankee fan. I think on any given night, the lineup the Yankees have can beat anyone. I also feel as if on any given night, either of these teams can be evenly matched with them. Texas’ bullpen can be overbearing at times. The way manager Ron Washington goes through them to get his perfect matchups, you wouldn’t have a hard time imagining him still going through an 8-ball between innings. The “calm optimist” in Rays’ manager Joe Maddon makes you feel like the team is never out of a game or series. I just hope I’m right and the veteran aspect of the Yankees with plenty of rest will overpower the pure adrenaline that is coming to clash up against them in a team with only two days of recovery to gear up for the showdown that can put them in the World Series. Play ball.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Unbalance of Power
The Rules - “A ‘Grounds’ Rule Double”
This finally brings me full circle to why I like the little technicalities of the game as well – you can talk about them and odds are the casual fan (read as: non-douchebag, non-sociopath, generally friendly) that is really there to catch a ball game actually will look impressed. After that, you can tell him you’re the CEO of GOOGLE and he’ll believe you because you’re so knowledgeable. Average fans are dumb while you, reader, are not because you care enough to read what some other die hard has to say (let me welcome you to our blog again, feel right at home).
So here is a nuance of the game that I have learned recently that I would like to pass along to you. Ok, raise your hand if you know what they call it when (and I’m trying to be as specific as possible) a batted ball bounces on the field, in fair territory, and goes straight into the stands, also in fair territory? I’ll give you a hint – it isn’t the title of this article. Oh man you feel stupid. That’s okay, I’m sure at least one of the other two current writers of this blog didn’t even know this one. Let me console you. It is not a “Ground Rule Double” (or as John Sterling calls it I believe, a Grounds Rule Double, hence the title). The fact is that it is neither. It is simply referred to in the rule book as a two base award. A ground rule double is exactly that of what the individual park’s set of rules designates as a rule that applies to their park. It doesn’t have to be specific to their park (other fields can have the same rule based on a similar layout, roof, etc.), but it can’t be in the general rules of baseball to be considered a “ground rule.” For example, a ball caught up in Wrigley’s beautiful ivy wall is considered a ground rule double.
Other examples would be the “ground rule home run” you could hit in Minnesota last year at the Metrodome. If a ball hit the right field wall (known as the “baggy”) and went out of play in foul territory (since the foul fence down the line was much lower than the wall out there) it was a “ground rule double.” However, to have that rule, they had to say the opposite in their park’s rules that if a ball hits the wall and goes over in fair territory (I assume the top of it and sneaks over) it was in fact a home run – by definition of their ground rules. I conclude that this is a ground rule home run because of the distinction made in the rulebook that it must go over, not to the side.
How about a ground rule triple? Does it exist? Well if a player throws his hat or glove at a ball and it makes contact in fair play, the batter is awarded third. However, this is called a three base award since it is universal at any stadium. There are no official ground rule triples yet in the game, even though one was rumored to once be at Fenway Park when something crazy happened with a big ladder out by the monster. But this is all just internet folklore. The two balls that ever hit said ladder turned into inside the park homers. Idiots from Boston… figures.